After what can only be described as an historic campaign and election, members of Congress are returning to Washington with mixed emotions. Republicans return celebrating what has turned out to be a rout for their side, and Democratic members come back trying to figure out how they will respond to the disheartening results. Let’s dig into everything happening this week in Washington. Welcome to the Week Ahead!
The Administration
One name above any other is surfacing among Democratic officials and staff in conversations about who is to blame for the election results, and it’s not Vice-President Kamala Harris, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), or Vladimir Putin. It’s President Joe Biden. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-11) summarized these feelings in a podcast interview with the New York Times saying “had the president [Biden] gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race.” The only thing President Biden can do now is use his remaining time in office, and his bully pulpit, to advocate for the preservation of his policies.
Meanwhile, President-elect Trump and his team are looking to fill out his forthcoming administration as quickly as possible. Former Presidential Campaign Co-Chair Susie Wiles will be his chief of staff and the first woman to hold this position, and Stephen Miller will be re-joining as deputy chief. Additionally, President-elect Trump has announced that he intends to nominate Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) to be the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, along with selecting former Acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement Tom Homan as the administration’s border czar. He also reportedly will ask Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) to serve as Secretary of State.
The Senate
All eyes are on the November 13 vote for Senate Majority Leader, when Republicans will hold a secret ballot to name either Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), or Rick Scott (R-FL) to the top spot. (We have our preference for sure!) As of this writing, President-elect Trump has not endorsed a candidate. His signaling to Senate Republicans whom his preference is to govern with could tip the scales for the intra-caucus vote.
The loss of the Senate majority for the Democratic party means Democrats will lose committee seats and funding for committee offices and staff.
The initial focus of the Senate in 2025 will be confirming the new administration’s cabinet. And while 53 seats is a more comfortable majority than recent Congressional sessions, Senate Republicans don’t have the 60-seat majority needed to overcome the new best friend of Senate Democrats, the filibuster. The fact that Senate Republicans will need Democratic votes to move most major legislative initiatives certainly gives a shot of bipartisan hope through the shrunken Democratic caucus.
What else will we be watching for in the upper chamber this week? Democratic leaders will also be holding their leadership elections but those are looking likely to maintain Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as Minority Leader. Senate Democrats will also be developing a plan to get as many of their judicial nominees through before the end of the session.
The House
At the time of writing, Republicans are sitting at somewhere around 214 to 219 seats and they need 218 to maintain the majority. Looking at the races that have yet to be called, it looks like Republicans will beat expectations and hold the House.
With Republicans looking to have control over the White House and both Houses of Congress for the first time since 2017, we will be watching to see if some House Democrats start seeing greener grass off the Hill. House Democratic leadership will want to prevent as many of these resignations as possible, since they will need every vote to oppose the Republican White House and Senate.
However, just like in the Senate, Democrats have reasons for some optimism. If past is prologue, a slim Republican majority could cause headaches for Speaker Johnson (R-LA-4), and he may have to depend on Democratic members to get must pass bills over the finish line. House Democrats may also look to assist their counterparts in the Senate by vocalizing opposition to Trump appointments and legislation moving in that chamber.
A slim majority for Republicans means that there is little room for defections, retirements, or the accepting of appointments in a Trump Administration without putting control of the House in jeopardy. And with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL-6) likely heading to the new administration, Speaker Johnson (R-LA-4) may want to start stocking up on aspirin.
Both sides of the aisle are also looking ahead to leadership elections with Republicans set to meet on November 13 and Democrats on November 19. The Republican leadership elections were looking like they’d be uneventful, but with Rep. Stefanik’s impending departure as House Republican Conference Chair, there are already three declared candidates for the position (Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI-9), Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL-3), and Rep. Erin Houchin (R-IN-9)). Republican Conference Vice-Chair Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT-1) is also rumored to be throwing his hat in the ring. Committee seats and committee leadership won’t be decided this week – those decisions will happen closer to December when the House Republican Steering Committee and Democratic Steering and Policy Committees meet.
And hey, let’s not forget about that upcoming December 30 deadline to fund the government!
There You Have It
No matter who you voted for on November 5, one thing we can all agree on is honoring our Veterans. We at Chamber Hill Strategies are grateful to those who have served our country and for those who wear the uniform even now. Make it a great week!
