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On July 31, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the Fiscal Year 2027 Medicare Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS) Final Rule. A CMS fact sheet is available here. The complete text of the final rule is available here. The final rule takes effect on October 1, 2026.
UPDATES TO IPPS PAYMENT RATES
As part of the final rule, CMS increases payment rates by 2.3% for general acute care hospitals that successfully participate in the Hospital Inpatient Quality Reporting (IQR) Program and are meaningful users of electronic health records (EHRs) under the Medicare Promoting Interoperability Program. The final update is 0.1% lower than the 2.4% update in the proposed rule. It reflects the same projected FY 2027 hospital market basket increase of 3.2%, reduced by a 0.9% productivity adjustment rather than the 0.8% adjustment in the proposed rule.
Overall, CMS estimates that the final changes in IPPS payment rates, together with other policy changes, will increase hospital payments by approximately $2.1 billion in FY 2027, up from the $1.4 billion estimate in the proposed rule. CMS separately estimates that payments for inpatient cases involving new medical technologies will increase by approximately $779 million in FY 2027, primarily driven by new approvals for new technology add-on payments. Including operating, capital, new technology, uncompensated care, and other payment changes, CMS estimates that acute care hospital payments will increase by $2.9 billion in FY 2027.
CMS finalized the FY 2027 outlier fixed-loss threshold at $49,346, lower than the proposed $51,704, based on updated data. The final threshold continues to target outlier payments at approximately 5.14% of total operating DRG payments, after incorporating an estimate of outlier reconciliation. In its final impact analysis, CMS estimates that total FY 2027 operating payments, including uncompensated care payments, will increase by 1.7% relative to FY 2026, up from the 1.2% estimate in the proposed rule.
MEDICARE-DEPENDENT HOSPITALS (MDHS) AND LOW-VOLUME HOSPITALS
The MDH program provides enhanced payments to small rural hospitals with 100 or fewer beds that are not Sole Community Hospitals and that derive at least 60% of inpatient days or discharges from Medicare patients. Qualifying hospitals are paid the higher of the federal rate or a blended rate composed of 75% of the federal rate and 25% of a hospital-specific rate based on historical costs. The low-volume hospital adjustment offsets the higher per-case costs of rural hospitals with low annual discharge volumes through a percentage add-on to IPPS payments. The add-on currently follows a sliding scale of up to 25%.
As in the proposed rule, the final rule makes no substantive policy changes to either the MDH program or the low-volume hospital adjustment. CMS finalized, as proposed, the conforming regulatory changes reflecting current law, under which both policies were extended through December 31, 2026, first by the Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026, and then by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026. CMS had stated in the proposed rule that it would revise the regulatory language if Congress extended the programs before the rule was finalized; no further extension was enacted, and the final rule reflects current law without revision. Absent further congressional action, the MDH program will expire beginning January 1, 2027, and formerly qualifying hospitals will be paid solely under the federal rate. The temporary low-volume hospital policy will revert on that date to the permanent statutory criteria, under which a hospital must have fewer than 200 total discharges and be located more than 25 road miles from another subsection (d) hospital to receive the 25% adjustment.
The final rule updates the impact estimates. CMS now estimates that extending both policies through the end of FY 2027 would provide affected hospitals with approximately $0.3 billion in additional payments, down from the $0.4 billion estimate in the proposed rule. Under current law, CMS estimates that 81 of the 166 current MDHs would otherwise be paid under the blended rate and will experience an overall payment reduction of approximately $94 million, compared with the proposed rule estimate of approximately $110 million for roughly 80 hospitals. CMS continues to estimate that expiration of the temporary low-volume policy will reduce aggregate payments by approximately $258 million in FY 2027, with approximately 589 hospitals expected to lose qualification under the stricter post-January 1 criteria. The final rule notes that approximately 55 of those 589 hospitals have 200 or fewer total discharges and could continue to qualify if they also meet the 25-road-mile criterion, but CMS is unable to estimate how many will do so because the distance determination is made by each hospital’s Medicare Administrative Contractor.
DISCONTINUATION OF THE LOW-WAGE INDEX HOSPITAL POLICY
The low-wage index hospital policy was established in the FY 2020 IPPS final rule as a temporary, budget-neutral initiative to address wage index disparities, benefiting rural hospitals by raising their wage indices to mitigate the impacts of lower payments. This policy adjusted the wage index for hospitals in the bottom quartile, setting a floor at the 25th percentile value, which was offset by a corresponding reduction for higher-wage hospitals. However, in July 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in Bridgeport Hosp. v. Becerra ruled that CMS lacked the statutory authority under sections 1886(d)(3)(E) or 1886(d) (5)(I) of the Social Security Act (SSA) to implement this policy, vacating both the policy and its budget neutrality adjustment.
In the FY 2026 final rule, CMS formally discontinued the low-wage index hospital policy and its associated budget-neutrality adjustment for FY 2026 and subsequent fiscal years. At the same time, CMS finalized a narrow, budget-neutral transitional payment exception for FY 2026 for certain hospitals experiencing significant decreases in their wage index resulting from the policy’s discontinuation. Under that transition, eligible hospitals could receive additional FY 2026 payments if their wage index otherwise would have fallen by more than 9.75% from their FY 2024 wage index, with payments calculated as if the hospital’s FY 2026 wage index were equal to 90.25% of its FY 2024 wage index.
For FY 2027, CMS finalized the proposed transition policy without modification and did not reinstate the low-wage index hospital policy. Hospitals whose FY 2027 wage index would be more than 14.2625% below their FY 2024 wage index will receive FY 2027 payments as if their wage index were equal to 85.7375% of their FY 2024 wage index. CMS will implement the transition in a budget-neutral manner after applying the 5% cap on wage index decreases, along with a budget-neutral equivalent exception under the capital IPPS. CMS estimates that 54 hospitals, out of the more than 3,000 hospitals paid under the IPPS, will receive FY 2027 transitional exception payments. In response to commenters challenging its authority to apply the transition in a budget-neutral manner, CMS maintained that section 1886(d)(5)(I)(i) of the SSA provides that authority. CMS declined requests to extend the transition beyond FY 2027 but stated that it may consider an extension in future rulemaking.
HOSPITAL INPATIENT QUALITY REPORTING (IQR) PROGRAM
CMS finalized the broad set of updates to the Hospital IQR Program from the proposed rule, in nearly all respects as proposed. CMS adopted three new measures: the Excess Days in Acute Care After Hospitalization for Diabetes measure beginning with the FY 2029 payment determination, and the Hospital Harm–Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism electronic clinical quality measure (eCQM) and Advance Care Planning eCQM beginning with the FY 2030 payment determination. CMS also finalized the adoption of modified versions of five mortality measures beginning with the FY 2028 payment determination (acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality) adding Medicare Advantage patients and shortening the applicable performance period from three years to two years, together with a technical update replacing hierarchical condition categories with individual ICD-10 codes in the risk adjustment methodology. CMS finalized the same modifications to the three Excess Days in Acute Care measures (for AMI, heart failure, and pneumonia), also beginning with the FY 2028 payment determination, and finalized the removal of three eCQMs beginning with the FY 2030 payment determination: VTE-1, VTE-2, and STK-02.
On reporting requirements, CMS finalized mandatory reporting of the Malnutrition Care Score eCQM beginning with the FY 2030 payment determination and the policy under which Hospital Harm eCQMs become mandatory after two years of self-selected reporting, beginning with the FY 2030 payment determination. CMS modified the latter policy in one respect relative to the proposed rule: data will be publicly reported on the Provider Data Catalog for the first year of mandatory reporting before being reported on the Care Compare tool at Medicare.gov, including the Hospital Star Ratings, beginning with the second year of mandatory reporting. CMS also finalized, as proposed, the update to the Maternal Morbidity Structural Measure, beginning with the FY 2028 payment determination, requiring hospitals to identify which perinatal quality collaborative program they participate in.
MEDICARE PROMOTING INTEROPERABILITY PROGRAM
CMS finalized the proposed changes to the Medicare Promoting Interoperability Program, with one timing modification affecting the electronic referral loops measures.
- CMS finalized, as proposed, the updated definition of certified electronic health record technology (CEHRT), aligning with changes proposed by Office of the National Coordinator (ONC), including removing references to several certification criteria from the program’s CEHRT definition. CMS stated that ONC need not finalize its proposed rule for CMS to finalize these revisions.
- CMS finalized, as proposed, the removal of the ONC Direct Review and ONC-Authorized Certification Body surveillance attestations beginning with the CY 2026 EHR reporting period.
- CMS finalized removal of the Support Electronic Referral Loops by Sending Health Information and Support Electronic Referral Loops by Receiving and Reconciling Health Information measures with a modification: in response to comments on operational readiness and transition timing, removal takes effect with the CY 2029 EHR reporting period, one year later than the proposed CY 2028 period.
CMS also finalized the more targeted policy updates as proposed.
- CMS finalized the modifications to the Electronic Prior Authorization measure, including revising the measure language to require that prior authorization be requested electronically through a Prior Authorization API using CEHRT and changing the reference from “discharge” to “encounter.”
- CMS finalized making that measure optional and worth 10 bonus points for the CY 2027 EHR reporting period, with hospitals required to attest “Yes” beginning with the CY 2028 EHR reporting period. The measure will remain unscored in CY 2028 and subsequent years for purposes of point allocation. CMS stated that it is strongly considering proposing, in the FY 2028 IPPS rulemaking, to require use of the functionality in the three ONC electronic prior authorization certification criteria.
- CMS finalized adoption of the Unique Device Identifiers for Implantable Medical Devices measure under the Public Health and Clinical Data Exchange objective beginning with the CY 2027 EHR reporting period. Hospitals will attest “Yes” or “No” or claim an applicable exclusion to fulfill the measure requirements.
- In alignment with the Hospital IQR Program, CMS finalized adoption of two new eCQMs (the Hospital Harm–Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism eCQM and the Advance Care Planning eCQM) and removal of three eCQMs (VTE-1, VTE-2, and STK-02), each beginning with the FY 2030 payment determination.
HOSPITAL READMISSIONS REDUCTION PROGRAM
CMS finalized adoption of the Hospital 30-Day, All-Cause, Risk-Standardized Readmission Rate Following Sepsis Hospitalization measure in the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), but modified the implementation timeline relative to the proposed rule. The proposed rule provided for a single early look for the FY 2028 program year, with the measure used for payment adjustment beginning in FY 2029. The final rule instead provides two years of confidential early look reports, which will include estimated HRRP payment adjustments with the sepsis measure added, for the FY 2028 program year (applicable period of July 1, 2024 through June 30, 2026) and the FY 2029 program year (applicable period of July 1, 2025 through June 30, 2027).
The measure will first be used for payment adjustment beginning with the FY 2030 program year (applicable period of July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2028). During the early look periods, data will not be publicly reported or used for payment adjustment. CMS retained its position, over commenter objections, that the measure should enter HRRP directly rather than first passing through a reporting-only program, citing the morbidity, mortality, and cost associated with sepsis readmissions. CMS estimates no financial impact from the HRRP changes for the FY 2027 payment determination.
HOSPITAL-ACQUIRED CONDITION (HAC) REDUCTION PROGRAM
Consistent with the proposed rule, the final rule makes no changes to the HAC Reduction Program for FY 2027. Under the existing statutory framework, hospitals in the worst-performing quartile of Total HAC Scores receive a 1% reduction in overall Medicare fee-for-service payments. In its impact analysis, CMS estimates that 721 of the 2,891 non-Maryland hospitals with an estimated FY 2027 Total HAC Score would be in the worst-performing quartile and subject to the payment reduction, with actual results to be determined in the fall of 2026 following a 30-day review and corrections period.
HOSPITAL VALUE-BASED PURCHASING (VBP) PROGRAM
As proposed, the final rule makes no changes to the current Hospital VBP measure set for the FY 2027 program year. CMS estimates that the total amount available for value-based incentive payments for FY 2027 is approximately $1.9 billion under the program’s budget-neutral structure. CMS finalized, as proposed, the substantive updates to five existing mortality measures in the Clinical Outcomes domain, beginning with the FY 2032 program year: the Hospital 30-Day, All-Cause, Risk-Standardized Mortality Rate Following AMI Hospitalization, Heart Failure Hospitalization, Pneumonia Hospitalization, COPD Hospitalization, and CABG Surgery measures.
For these five measures, CMS finalized adding MA beneficiaries to the measure population and shortening the performance period from three years to two years, along with the related technical update replacing hierarchical condition categories with individual ICD-10 codes in the risk adjustment methodology. Consistent with the statutory requirement that measures be publicly reported before use in the VBP Program, CMS finalized adoption of the modified measures in the Hospital IQR Program for the FY 2028 through FY 2031 payment determinations, with the measures then removed from the IQR Program and modified in the VBP Program beginning with the FY 2032 program year (initial VBP performance period of July 1, 2028 through June 30, 2030). CMS noted that the performance standards established for the FY 2032 program year do not yet reflect the finalized modifications and that updated standards will be provided in the FY 2028 IPPS rulemaking.
COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT EXPANDED (CJR-X) MODEL
The final rule finalizes the expansion of the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) Model into CJR-X, a mandatory nationwide bundled-payment model for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries undergoing lower extremity joint replacements (hip, knee, and ankle procedures) performed in inpatient or hospital outpatient settings, tested under section 1115A of the SSA. Participating acute care hospitals will be accountable for the cost and quality of care from the inpatient admission or outpatient procedure through 90 days after discharge. The model applies to acute care hospitals paid under the IPPS and Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS), with limited exclusions; CMS finalized, as proposed, the exclusion of hospitals participating in TEAM and hospitals located in Maryland.
CMS modified the start date relative to the proposed rule: in response to comments on implementation readiness, CJR-X will begin on January 1, 2028, rather than the proposed October 1, 2027. Hospitals will be assessed on five quality measures combined into a composite quality score. Target prices will be regional and risk-adjusted, incorporating capped normalization and trend factors, with separate pricing accommodations for low-volume and safety net hospitals. CMS will permit overlap with most other models and will allow participant hospitals to enter financial arrangements. The final rule also waives certain Medicare program requirements, provides for beneficiary-identifiable and regional aggregated data sharing, and gives participants options for Alternative Payment Model participation. Hospitals may earn reconciliation payments if episode spending is below the applicable target price and quality requirements are met or owe repayments to CMS if spending exceeds the target.
REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION (RFIS)
CMS did not finalize policy through the RFIs included in the proposed rule. The final rule summarizes the comments received on each RFI and describes CMS’s response as follows.
- Measuring Emergency Care Access and Timeliness in the Hospital IQR and VBP Programs: Commenters were largely opposed to including the Emergency Care Access & Timeliness eCQM in the VBP Program, citing factors outside hospital control such as behavioral health patients awaiting placement, lack of post-acute or supportive housing options, and non-deferrable trauma volume, and stated that any adoption should follow at least two years of reporting in the IQR Program. CMS responded that it is not responding to specific comments in the final rule but will take the input into account in future development and consideration of the measure for both programs.
- Potential Future Use of the Adult Community-Onset Sepsis Standardized Mortality Ratio Measure in the IQR Program: Commenters generally supported the transition from process to outcome measures but raised concerns regarding feasibility and implementation burden, particularly for rural hospitals; the need for further pilot testing, clear technical specifications, and risk adjustment methodology detail; and the influence of transfer patterns and factors outside the inpatient facility’s control on sepsis outcomes. CMS responded that it is not responding to specific comments in the final rule but will take the input into account in future development and consideration of the measure.
- Birthing-Friendly Hospital Designation Modification to Expand Designation Criteria: Commenters supported moving beyond a binary scoring structure but raised concerns with the potential scoring framework, including the interpretability of k-means clustering, the combined effects of clustering and peer grouping, and the possibility that hospitals performing poorly on the Cesarean Birth or Severe Obstetric Complications eCQMs could receive a designation icon; several recommended a z-score methodology, minimum thresholds, or absolute criteria, and many urged that any updates be fair to rural, safety net, and other hospitals serving complex patient populations. CMS responded that it is not responding to specific comments in the final rule but will take the input into account in the future development of the designation.
- Ambulatory Surgical Center (ASC) Episodes in TEAM: CMS stated that, due to the breadth of topics covered and the variety of viewpoints expressed, it is not responding to specific comments. CMS acknowledged the input on the parameters under which ASCs could be incorporated into TEAM, including the degree to which adding ASCs would necessitate a separate model test, and stated that it is conducting an in-depth review of the comments, which may inform potential future rulemaking proposals.
- Hospitals with Physician Ownership in TEAM: CMS responded to comments in detail and stated that it intends to propose in future rulemaking a policy allowing physician-owned hospitals (POHs) not located in mandatory TEAM Core-Based Statistical Areas to participate voluntarily in TEAM. In responding to commenters’ concerns regarding patient selection, referral patterns, beneficiary choice, and model evaluation, CMS stated that it intends to address beneficiary protections, monitoring requirements, and the potential for remedial action or participant termination in that future rulemaking, and that it may align the terms of POH participation with existing TEAM participation requirements where possible and appropriate.
If there is one thing senators on both sides can usually agree on, it’s the importance of August recess, especially during an election year. However, President Donald Trump’s demand that the Senate cancel the planned recess to pass the SAVE America Act and advance a budget reconciliation resolution has put pressure on Republicans to stay in town. Will the demands work? We’re on the edge of our seats. So, let’s get into it. Welcome to the Week Ahead!
The Administration
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is hard at work on Medicare payment rules, reviewing stakeholder comments and getting rules finalized ahead of the next fiscal and calendar years. All of the final fiscal year rules for 2027, including the Hospital Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems for Acute Care Hospitals, the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System, the Skilled Nursing Facility Prospective Payment System, the Inpatient Psychiatric Facility Prospective Payment System, and the Hospice Wage Index Proposed Payment System, have been pushed out the door but the comment periods for the 2027 calendar year payment rules, including the Physician Fee Schedule, Changes to the End-Stage Renal Disease Prospective Payment System, the Home Health Prospective Payment System, and the Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System, are still ongoing, so stakeholders are working on submitting their statements before the deadlines.
Meanwhile, the administration was handed a momentary win when a federal judge in Massachusetts denied a request for a preliminary injunction against parts of the Medicaid work requirements interim final rule. The injunction request was made by 25 states and Washington, D.C., who are challenging the inclusion of a work requirement in the definition of medically frail, the use of a 12-month look-back period in assessing medical frailty claims, and the imposition of a work requirement on the short-term hardship exception. The judge ruled against the injunction request on the basis that the states did not show that it was necessary to prevent irreparable harm. However, the judge also noted that the denial was not a reflection or anticipation of what the court will ultimately decide in the lawsuit and the ruling said the court will set an expedited schedule to allow for full briefing ahead of the January 1, 2027, implementation deadline. Furthermore, the ruling noted that the injunction request was being denied without prejudice, meaning if the briefing continues to the implementation date of January 1, 2027, states could again ask the court to issue an injunction.
The Senate
Despite the pressure from President Trump and over a dozen senators to cancel recess, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said he doesn’t see a reason to do so. Specifically, Leader Thune has said that the Senate has voted on the SAVE Act multiple times, and he doesn’t see how staying in town would change the result.
As that drama plays out, Leader Thune has filed cloture on the legislative vehicle to extend government funding through December 4. The measure includes a provision to block President Trump’s rule to change the approval of grants (at least through December 11). There is also plenty of Committee-level work related to health care. The Senate Budget Committee is holding a hearing on Medicaid on August 4, which will be the first hearing that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has called since becoming Budget Chair, other than a previously scheduled business meeting to advance a nomination. Also on August 4, the Senate Finance Health Subcommittee is holding a hearing on biotechnology, and the Senate Judiciary Committee was planning on holding a hearing on how competition and transparency can lower drug costs, but it has been postponed.
The House
House members are enjoying their August recess.
There You Have It
Those of us here at Chamber Hill are also looking forward to the possibilities that August has to offer. What is your favorite summer activity? Let us know. Make it a great week!
On July 22, 2026, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee held an executive session to consider health care legislation including three bills aimed at increasing price transparency and improving workforce shortages. Those bills were batched together and were agreed to, as amended, by a roll call vote of 21-1, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) voting no. Please see below for a description of each of those bills, any notable discussion, and amendments considered.
OPENING STATEMENTS
SELECT LEGISLATION ADVANCED IN THE MARKUP
S. 2355, Patients Deserve Price Tags Act (Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)), to enforce health care price transparency by requiring hospitals, labs, and surgical centers to publish upfront, actual dollar amounts for services.
- Sen. Paul shared his view that the problem is that prices are fixed by insurers (either government or private) and simply publicizing prices won’t change them.
S. 4110, EMPOWER for Health Act (Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)), to reauthorize Title VII health professions workforce development programs through FY2030 to address medical provider shortages and diversify the health care workforce.
- Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) offered an amendment to give the Health Resources Services Administration (HRSA) the authority to create a federal nursing data collection center.
- The amendment passed by voice vote.
S. 1847, Title VIII Nursing Workforce Reauthorization Act (Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)) to reauthorize HRSA nursing education through federal funding and expanded access to clinical training in underserved areas.
- Sen. Blunt Rochester offered an amendment to establish a state and regional nursing workforce center data collection pilot program.
- The amendment passed, with Sen. Paul recorded as nay.
- Sen. Murkowski offered an amendment to provide for a wage differential program to support new nursing school faculty members.
- The amendment passed, with Sen. Paul and Sen. Alan Armstrong (R-OK) recorded as nay.
Most Medicaid proposals on long-term services and supports (LTSS) carry an unstated assumption that the primary users of LTSS are older adults aging in place. In reality, many others use LTSS including individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD), Serious Mental Illness (SMI), Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), and children with complex medical needs.
The people who rely on LTSS don’t fit neatly into one box. Each group has unique needs and policymakers face distinct challenges in meeting those needs, and are all navigating a Medicaid system under significant pressure. This blog looks at four of these subpopulations, what they need, and what’s standing in the way.
Background on LTSS
LTSS care is largely provided through Medicaid coverage that is a mix of institutionalization and home- and community-based services (HCBS). HCBS was not originally written into Medicaid policy, which has led to gaps across states and policies centered around only older adults, primarily people aged 65 and older who need help with daily activities due to age-related decline.
People with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD)
People with IDD require a lifetime of support and face waiver waitlists that can last more than a decade, the longest delays of any LTSS subpopulation.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law July 4, 2025, created a new 1915(c) waiver category allowing states to serve individuals before they hit the institutional level-of-care (LOC) threshold, with $50M for FY26 and $100M for FY27. It sounds meaningful, but the math is less encouraging. According to an analysis using 2020 average per-capita HCBS spending, that $50M divided across 50 states covers roughly 27 people per state. The authority also doesn’t kick in until July 2028, and per-capita spending is capped at state institutional care rates, which limits how far states can go.
The real test of this new waiver authority is whether states use the next two years to build it into something impactful, a decision is being made in state budget offices right now.
People with Serious Mental Illness (SMI)
SMI impairments are episodic and cognitive, manifesting in the inability to consistently manage medications, maintain housing, or navigate a crisis. Standard LOC assessments were not built to capture that, so those who genuinely need support get turned away from care and cycle through ERs, jails, and shelters instead.
This is primarily a state-level problem as each state designs its own assessment instrument. Any state can adopt a more comprehensive tool that accounts for cognitive and episodic limitations, though budget neutrality requirements create a real constraint. On the federal side, H.R. 3320, the Strengthening Medicaid for SMI Act would increase the federal match for intensive community-based SMI services. It likely won’t pass this Congress, as there is only one cosponsor, there is no Senate bill, and the sponsor (Rep. Goldman (D-NY-10)) lost his re-election bid. However, it’s a clear marker of where reform is headed.
Children with Complex Medical Needs
Children with complex medical needs don’t automatically age out of their conditions at 19, but they can age out of the Medicaid coverage keeping them stable.
Many qualify for coverage through the Katie Beckett Program, created under the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) in 1982, which allows children with significant disabilities to access Medicaid regardless of family income. But the transitions out of pediatric coverage are a gauntlet and lead to a potential break in coverage due to the long waiver waitlists and inconsistent requirements.
The Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission’s (MACPAC) June 2026 report to Congress includes a chapter on this problem. The Commission provided recommendations, including requiring states to send advance notice of aging and implementing a 12-month continuous eligibility to account for waiting time. The chapter provides a solid baseline for advocates to influence congressional action.
People with Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)
Around 5.3 million Americans live with a lifelong disability as a result of a brain injury; however, TBI-specific HCBS waivers exist in only about 20 states. In the rest, individuals are misclassified under other waiver categories or fall through the gaps entirely, ending up in shelters, jails, or ERs that aren’t equipped to help them.
CMS recognized TBI as a chronic condition in the Contract Year 2025 (CY25) Medicare Advantage and Part D Final Rule, a federal precedent advocates can point to when making the Medicaid parity argument. However, the more immediate action is at the state level as North Carolina, Maryland, and Nebraska are actively expanding TBI-specific waivers. For advocates in states without them, these are the types of models to bring to your state Medicaid director.
The Common Thread
Each of the subpopulations experiences the same blind spot: Medicaid HCBS was designed around, and for, older adults aging in place and then extended to other populations through inconsistent waivers and state amendments.
The direct care workforce shortage reflects the mismatch there are not enough caregivers to serve every population in need. Providers turn away over 25% of referrals due to staffing shortages. When formal care is unavailable, family members become caregivers and often leave the workforce to do so.
The fragmentation has confined each population to its own waiver structure, agency contact, and advocacy community. As a result, the four subpopulations are fighting the same underlying fight in isolation.
Most pressing of all, HCBS remains an optional Medicaid benefit rather than a guaranteed one, making it a prime target when states cut budgets. This means each of these subpopulations’ care is first to go if money gets tight.
Where to Go from Here
Just as these programs were built state by state, the policy levers to change them rest primarily with the states. IDD waiver implementation, SMI assessment redesign, and TBI waiver expansion are each determined at the state level. Only the children’s transition issue is squarely a federal ask, addressed through MACPAC recommendations and congressional action.
That means the most consequential near-term decisions are happening in state budget negotiations, as states absorb the fiscal pressure from OBBBA and decide what to implement with the new authorities it created.
That does not mean the federal level is quiet. On May 20, 2026, Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-OR) and 16 Senate Democrats issued a dear colleague letter signaling interest in policies to make long-term care more affordable and accessible for seniors and people with disabilities. Requests for Information comment periods, and staff briefings are all on the table as avenues to raise these populations’ visibility with congressional staff before legislative text is drafted.
These four populations are not fighting different battles. They are fighting one battle, alone, inside a system that was never built to hold them together. The workforce shortage, the optional status of HCBS, and the fragmentation of policy levers across fifty states are not separate problems. They are the same exclusion, appearing in different forms. As Congress and state legislatures shape the next round of Medicaid decisions, the populations with the most at stake have the least shared voice in the room. That imbalance needs to change before the decisions do.