Valentine’s Day may be past, but congrats to our very own Zach Schulz who got married over the weekend! With tensions high on Capitol Hill, we could use some newlywed love around here. Let’s get into it, welcome to the Week Ahead!
The Administration
We have two questions for President Trump on the budget reconciliation debate. (Well, we have a lot more than 2 questions, and want to know way more than just what he thinks about the budget, but let’s stay focused, people.)
First, about that “one big, beautiful bill.” The President surprised a lot of folks – including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) – when he publicly endorsed the House bill over the Senate bill. At this point, he has expressed openness to multiple different budget bills to finance $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and achieve his domestic agenda.
The Senate approach takes 2 bites at the apple and is ostensibly an easier path. The Senate bill that passed February 20 is much cheaper ($340 billion), requiring less government spending offsets. The House takes 1 bite and loads up on Medicaid cuts to offset the costs of making the 2017 tax cuts permanent.
Second, where is he on Medicare and Medicaid? In a statement to Politico on February 19, the White House said they were “committed to protecting Medicare and Medicaid while slashing the waste, fraud, and abuse within those programs.” Later that day, an updated statement was released leaving out the word Medicare. Then the endorsement of the House bill which contemplates an eye-popping $880B of changes to Medicaid.
Feeling some whiplash? So are we.
So where is his head? The President wants what he wants right away. While complicating the legislative process, he’s been completely consistent about driving the conversation and letting the Republican Congress deal with the mess. Expect more unexpected.
The Senate
The Senate budget has no explicit reforms to Medicaid and Medicare but does include direction to the Senate Finance Committee to identify at least $1billion in savings. While Senate Republicans point to their fervent interest in repealing the minimum staffing rule for nursing homes to achieve their budget target, Senate Democrats and advocates warn the Senate approach may lead to cuts in Medicaid and Medicare.
Now what? The Senate moves on this week to nominations – noms, noms, and more noms – as they eagerly watch the drama over in the House. In case you missed, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the strategist behind Senate judicial nominations – announced he won’t seek re-election in 2026.
What about the March 14 government funding deadline? With rumors that the Senate and House Appropriations leads have reached a deal on the overall dollar figure, Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) warned against a long-term continued funding resolution where Congress would relinquish the power of the purse to President Trump and Elon Musk.
Senate hearings this week
- 2/26: Senate Aging Committee hearing on Combating the Opioid Epidemic
The House
The House is coming back to DC from time in their districts hearing from constituents about President Trump’s recent actions and the House budget. They are getting an earful about the impact that potential cuts could have on access to health care for the millions who rely on the Medicaid safety net.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Republican leadership don’t seem deterred and are set to vote on the budget February 25.
Will it pass? Well, that President Trump endorsement certainly will help.
With 218 Republicans in the House, they can only afford one Republican defection if they want to pass the bill. Even Republicans who have aired concerns about the impact on Medicaid and Medicare are expected to vote to pass the budget to move the process forward
Don’t expect House Republicans to hold together for long. Keeping Republicans on board with that plan will only get more challenging as the House and Senate try to iron out the differences in their budget approaches, and then craft the program changes the budget requires.
House hearings this week
- 2/24: House Rules Committee hearing on the House budget bill
- 2/26: House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee hearing on Pharmacy Benefit Manager Practices
There You Have It
What advice do you have for Zach and Debra? ChatGPT advises learning to compromise, communicating openly, and supporting each other through conflict. What’s yours? Let us know! Make it a great week!