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Could Manchin and Sinema Get Primaried for 2024?

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) have torpedoed key Democratic proposals like voting right reform and the Build Back Better Act, which has sparked some lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to say that he would support primary challengers against both of his Democratic colleagues.  In theory, this would give Democrats an opportunity to replace both Manchin and Sinema with Senators who are more supportive of the party’s legislative agenda.  But what is the likelihood of a Democratic challenger replacing either of them in the Senate?

Joe Manchin

As much as he remains a thorn in the side of many congressional Democrats, Joe Manchin is probably the only Democrat capable of winning a statewide seat in the Mountain State.  That’s because the state leans heavily Republican – in the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won West Virginia with nearly 69% of the vote, the second-highest percentage carried by either presidential candidate that year (Wyoming was first, with Trump carrying nearly 70% of the vote).

Additionally, all winners of statewide races in West Virginia, who are currently holding elected office, are Republicans.  This includes Manchin’s colleague in the Senate, Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and all five directly elected executive branch officials in West Virginia’s state government including Republican Gov. Jim Justice.

Even if a Democratic candidate were to successfully defeat Manchin in the 2024 primary, they would almost certainly lose the general election.  In 2018, Manchin defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of only 3%, and it’s highly unlikely a Democrat even one iota further to the left would have fared any better.

It is also worth noting Joe Manchin is quite popular among West Virginia voters.  A recent poll by the American First Policy Institute showed 59% percent of voters approve of Manchin – nearly double of President Joe Biden’s approval rating of 30% in the state.  Manchin is also very familiar to West Virginia voters, having severed six years as governor before being elected to the Senate in 2010.  Even though West Virginia isn’t friendly territory for Democrats, Manchin has proven time and time again he’s the only Democrat capable of winning the state.

Kyrsten Sinema

The senior Arizona senator isn’t as immune to a primary challenger, however.  Arizona is a purple state that has been gradually trending blue.  President Joe Biden won the state in the 2020 general election by a razor-thin 0.4% margin, while then-Democratic candidate Mark Kelly defeated Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) by a margin of 2.4%.  In theory, this would give a Democratic senator candidate who’s slightly to the left of Sinema – and more supportive of the party’s legislative agenda – at least a somewhat viable shot at winning a statewide race.

Like Manchin, Sinema is up for reelection in 2024, and while no Democrats have officially announced plans to primary Sinema, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has publicly expressed interest.  The Phoenix-area congressman has been openly critical of Sinema before, and in January 2022, he met with some of Sinema’s donors in New York City.

More so, Sinema’s popularity has been dropping among Democratic voters in Arizona.  Sinema started 2021 with a 60% approval rating among Arizona Democrats, but since she voiced her opposition to the Build Back Better Act tax provisions and filibuster changes necessary to bring about voting rights reform, her approval rating among the state’s Democrats has dropped to just under 10% in January 2022.  With low approval ratings, a potential formidable challenger, and a state electorate leaning ever so slightly blue, Sinema could face some serious headaches if she seeks an additional Senate term two years from now.

However, a lot can change between now and 2024.  If the Democrats lose their majority in the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, Manchin and Sinema’s hold on the party’s agenda won’t be quite as noticeable.  Additionally, priorities can change quickly, and Democrats may not be as occupied with sweeping legislative proposals over the next two years.  But at least in the case of Sinema, opportunities for potential primary challenges remain ripe.

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How to Rock the Virtual Advocacy Meeting in 2022

Two years into the pandemic, and advocates are still primarily connecting with lawmakers in Washington over a telephone line or computer screen.  However, much has been learned over the past two years, and there are plenty of best practices that you can use to make sure your next virtual meeting with a member of Congress is knocked out of the park.

Embrace Videoconferencing

In the pandemic’s first year, conference calls seemed to be the modus operandi for advocates connecting with members of Congress and their staff.  Over the course of 2021, advocates and congressional offices alike increasingly warmed up to the idea of using videoconferencing platforms for meetings – with Zoom being an overwhelming favorite.  Here are some tips and tricks for using Zoom to your advantage.

  • For multiple meetings at the same time, use multiple accounts.  The basic Zoom plan that’s free-of-charge only allows you to schedule one meeting at the same time.  However, scheduling more than one meeting for the same time slot is easy – just use a verified email account to create a new Zoom account. This will allow advocates to run a new meeting that will run concurrent with what’s already on the calendar.  When setting up more than one meeting at the same time, it’s essential to keep in mind two things:  make sure the waiting room is NOT selected, and select the option to allow participants to join at any time.  These two steps will allow participants to meet without the host, which is the person who holds the Zoom account.
  • Do not schedule meetings with the same Zoom account-back-to-back.  If the ability to allow participants to join early anytime is selected, a participant could join a meeting early only to find that they are inadvertently part of a meeting that’s still running.  Ensuring at least a 30-minute window between meetings on the same Zoom account will prevent any accidental overlap on meeting attendees.
  • Double-check your links.  Scheduling multiple meetings can be tedious, so make sure all the Zoom links you created are for the intended meeting participates.  This will help avoid cases of participants entering the wrong meeting or starting the meeting at the incorrect time.

Make Calendar Invitations Your One-Stop-Shop

When your meeting is scheduled, send an invitation via Outlook or another email service to all meeting participants.  This way, both the advocates and congressional offices know who’s attending, which 1) gives the advocates an opportunity to coordinate beforehand and 2) provides a way for advocates and congressional staff to follow-up after the meeting.

Additionally, be sure to include other information that’s necessary to all participants to have a successful meeting:  This could include:

  • Links to Zoom, WebEx, or other videoconferencing platform.
  • Meeting materials like PowerPoint slides, one-pagers, leave-behinds, and links to relevant external sources.
  • Information about the legislator (connection to organization, past support of the advocacy issue, membership on relevant committee, etc.).

Recruit New Advocates

When setting up virtual meetings, don’t just rely on your normal “crew” that you could count on to meet legislators in-person.  Instead, look for people that may not be able to make travel arrangements to Washington but have plenty to add to the conversation.   With virtual meetings, geography and distance doesn’t pose any limitations, and advocates from anywhere can join your meeting to share a story with a congressional office.

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